Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?

This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 4986% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 48.8% on the "No" side, reflecting the exceptionally low 9¢ price and high cliff risk (10/10), though the modest $20.48 daily volume and $9,923 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify volatility around any geopolitical developments. The flat 7-day price action at 9¢ indicates the market has priced in near-zero probability of formal Israeli recognition by mid-2026, likely reflecting Syria's current political isolation and the absence of any credible diplomatic pathway. With roughly 7 months until resolution, the combination of negligible trading activity and extreme tail-risk payoffs makes this primarily a speculative position rather than a liquid price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade