Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 74¢ reflects strong confidence in holding FL-22, but the asymmetric implied yields (64.1% vs. 519.5%) signal extreme uncertainty skewed toward Republican upside, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns despite lower probability. The market has surged 13 cents over seven days on relatively thin liquidity ($13.6K open interest, $1.1K daily volume), and the 672% realized volatility with a 6.53 vol ratio suggests recent price discovery rather than stable consensus. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a district in genuine flux where the market is pricing in significant Republican competitive potential despite current Democratic positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade