Will the Republican Party win the NY-13 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at an extreme 5¢ with a staggering 3,456% implied yield, reflecting NY-13's heavily Democratic lean, though the 2¢ spread and $41.8M open interest suggest reasonable liquidity for such a lopsided market. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 midterms provides ample time for political shifts, yet the price has remained flat over seven days, indicating strong consensus around Democratic dominance in this district. The 19 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as late-breaking developments or unexpected candidate dynamics could create sharp repricing closer to the election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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