Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 7¢ despite NC-04 being a historically competitive district, generating a staggering 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 13.7% on the No side. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $31,516 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the asymmetric yields indicating either a significant information gap or a liquidity trap where the low price reflects lack of buyers rather than genuine probability assessment. With 201 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if NC-04's fundamentals support Republican competitiveness, though traders should verify whether this pricing reflects recent polling or simply reflects thin market conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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