Will Charlie Condon win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Charlie Condon win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Charlie Condon's odds have collapsed dramatically from 13¢ to 5¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about his rookie eligibility or performance prospects for 2026.
Analysis
Charlie Condon's odds have collapsed dramatically from 13¢ to 5¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about his rookie eligibility or performance prospects for 2026. The extreme implied yield of 2,810% on the yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of illiquid markets, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread indicating minimal trading activity despite $2.2M in open interest. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 7,482% and cliff risk index of 19 suggest this market is highly unstable and prone to sharp reversals, making it unreliable for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xe35410d5af57698952758028c663e469e72c34b151909a3736e745afd02e0220 yes 100