What is the current probability for "Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1504.5% and 14.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 7/10¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $19·OI $821.299·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xe3756fe9c41dd786bac8d5092c783e02463f5d5de99285f1f5d0fd47df02f76a

7-day price150 snapshots · 10 regime

63¢9¢ current

Apr 96¢Apr 29

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 18¢(Δ -9¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 166.6%Close-time delta 18063h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1504.5%

IY (No) 14.7%

Adj IY 1003%

CRI 10

RV 7714%

VR 36.26

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1504.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1003%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	7714%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	36.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 4:56:20 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:53:27 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe3756fe9c41dd786bac8d5092c783e02463f5d5de99285f1f5d0fd47df02f76a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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