Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of April?

The 71¢ price implies a 71% probability TSLA closes above $350 by April 30, 2026, but the extreme 7896% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $11.149 daily volume and wide 35¢ spread. The sharp 15¢ price decline over seven days combined with 618% realized volatility and a 1.73 vol ratio suggests significant uncertainty, yet the neutral regime and low cliff risk index (2) indicate no imminent catalyst is driving the market—this appears to be a liquidity-constrained position where the "No" side offers outsized returns that don't reflect fundamental risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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