Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of April?

The 67¢ price implies a 67% probability AMZN closes above $240 by April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily asymmetric implied yields—1,589% for Yes versus 6,548% for No—signal severe illiquidity with only $2,729 open interest and a 27¢ spread, making this pricing unreliable. With just 11 days to expiry, the 5¢ price decline over seven days and 193% realized volatility suggest meaningful uncertainty, yet the low 24-hour volume of $100 and high cliff risk indicate thin order books that could produce sharp repricing on minimal trading activity. The 0.48 vol ratio and neutral regime (0.5 score) offer no directional conviction, making this market better suited for informed traders with specific AMZN conviction rather than casual participants.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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