Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 9% price severely undervaluing deal probability given the 26,913% implied yield on YES and the dramatic 50% price collapse over seven days from 18¢. The $10.2M open interest against just $472k daily volume suggests illiquidity is trapping positions, while the 5¢ spread and cliff risk index of 10 indicate resolution uncertainty with only 14 days to expiry. The resolution text appears truncated but references Trump's directive to cease using Anthropic technologies, which would seemingly eliminate Pentagon deal prospects—yet the market's extreme volatility (2,384% realized) and high information arrival rate (2.4/hour) suggest traders expect major clarifying news before the April 30 deadline.

Resolution rules

In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count). An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect. Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period. Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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