Will the Democratic Party win the CA-42 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a 94% win probability for CA-42 with an extremely tight 1¢ spread, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.5M open interest, suggesting this may be a stale or inactive position. The No side's 2859% implied yield is a major red flag indicating extremely thin liquidity on the Republican side, creating potential resolution risk if the seat actually flips. With 200 days to expiry and the market having moved only 1¢ over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction, low-activity market that may not reflect current CA-42 fundamentals accurately.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade