Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating a 4574.8% implied yield on the Yes side, though the zero 24-hour volume and $13,100 open interest suggest the price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating a 4574.8% implied yield on the Yes side, though the zero 24-hour volume and $13,100 open interest suggest the price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The sharp 57% price decline over seven days (from 7¢ to 3¢) combined with a high 32 cliff risk index indicates potential manipulation or a significant negative catalyst, making this illiquid contract unreliable for serious positioning. With 258 days until expiry and a neutral regime, the extreme yield likely reflects the market's struggle to price a low-probability geopolitical event rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe9d59a33a4d94c334684fb785cacf7c200e760f2003ef76289bfb244387a5940 yes 100