Will Jason Cass be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Jason Cass be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Jason Cass is priced at an extreme 3¢ with an extraordinary 36,076% implied yield on a "Yes" outcome, suggesting either minimal market conviction or potential mispricing given the thin $7.14 daily volume and $11.3K open interest.
Analysis
Jason Cass is priced at an extreme 3¢ with an extraordinary 36,076% implied yield on a "Yes" outcome, suggesting either minimal market conviction or potential mispricing given the thin $7.14 daily volume and $11.3K open interest. The market has doubled from 1¢ to 3¢ over seven days with only 33 days to resolution, indicating recent price movement despite the low liquidity and zero bid-ask spread. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 and 18,038% risk-adjusted yield flag significant tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty around nomination timing or candidate viability rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Regime
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sf trade 0xead98c2f05aa58c81ffcca61b363401a52e5f4e0a1615feebdc8103c238cf54f yes 100