Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing a 47% probability that Hegseth exits the administration by end-2026, with notably high implied yields (160% annualized) reflecting the binary nature and ~9-month timeframe rather than fundamental mispricing. Volume is modest at $1.1M daily against $29.5M open interest, and the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity despite the niche political outcome. The 127% realized volatility and recent 3¢ price uptick from 44¢ indicate meaningful uncertainty, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.4/hour) suggest the market is relatively stable absent major news catalysts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade