Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for a Maxwell pardon despite offering an extraordinary 2,217% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for a Maxwell pardon despite offering an extraordinary 2,217% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With zero 24-hour volume against $12.6M open interest and a wide 2¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable price discovery, making the extreme yield figures largely theoretical. The 258-day timeframe to expiry and neutral regime score indicate this is a speculative position with meaningful tail-risk exposure rather than a fundamentally-driven market.
Also on kalshi at 51¢(Δ -40¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xef145ca5ba752b022f71b4d1f7abeb6c311cd537c0d1e64f3682ca90b2412dbf yes 100