What is the current probability for "Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 309.7% and 11.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 15/16¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $15,428.483·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0xf07d6177e9b12995958e1e9591514625dd36f268272bb7f1fd50a4ebcd443f00

7-day price4 snapshots · 3 regime

17¢16¢ current

Apr 1015¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 309.7%

IY (No) 11.2%

Adj IY 155%

CRI 5

Overround 1.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	309.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	155%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:11:33 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xf07d6177e9b12995958e1e9591514625dd36f268272bb7f1fd50a4ebcd443f00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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