Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Chris Dudley's Republican primary odds have remained flat at 16¢ over the past week despite extremely high realized volatility (1165%), suggesting price stability amid underlying uncertainty rather than directional conviction.
Analysis
Chris Dudley's Republican primary odds have remained flat at 16¢ over the past week despite extremely high realized volatility (1165%), suggesting price stability amid underlying uncertainty rather than directional conviction. The market shows severe liquidity constraints with only $153.94 in 24-hour volume against $17.5M open interest, and the astronomical 5985% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicates the market is pricing in a highly unlikely outcome with minimal trading activity to validate that probability. With just 32 days until the May 19 primary and an info arrival rate of 1.2 signals per hour, this thin market could experience sharp repricing if campaign developments or polling shifts occur.
Also on kalshi at 10¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf3f0da9f5bd2225c4c85ef609f8ca12e4fb78da3d3b1f368518b0b380ce1d0cd yes 100