Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme distress signals with a 9¢ price down 76% over seven days, zero 24-hour volume despite $1.7M open interest, and a massive 17¢ bid-ask spread indicating severe illiquidity. The 1496% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 9663% realized volatility and a 36.56 vol ratio suggest either a technical breakdown or a major negative catalyst (possibly Mendoza's firing or injury), making this a potentially toxic liquidity trap rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity. With 247 days to expiry, the market appears abandoned by active traders, and the cliff risk index of 10 signals high probability of sharp repricing upon any news flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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