Will Elizabeth Girard be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Elizabeth Girard be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 2/5¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $15,374.661·Closes Sep 8, 2026·139d remaining
0xf6170e209c4f963cf3f4029c9162e2fd8fb6d58fb12a91be8429bf41c162acf7
7-day price7 snapshots · 4 regime
4¢4¢ current
Apr 103¢Apr 17

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6317.6%
IY (No) 11.0%
Adj IY 1579%
CRI 24
Overround -0.1%
LAS 0.50
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)6317.6%
IY (No)11.0%
Adj IY1579%
CRI24
Overround-0.1%
LAS0.50

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 8:21:59 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf6170e209c4f963cf3f4029c9162e2fd8fb6d58fb12a91be8429bf41c162acf7 yes 100

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