Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat?

The Republican probability in WI-02 has collapsed from 9¢ to 6¢ over seven days, signaling strong Democratic confidence in this traditionally blue district. The 2849.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme mispricing risk given the 6% probability, though liquidity is thin at just $607 in 24-hour volume against $38.8M open interest, creating potential slippage concerns. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a heavily Democratic-favored seat where Republican odds may be undervalued relative to typical midterm volatility, though the low volume suggests limited market conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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