Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of April?

The market is pricing in an extremely high 95% probability that Amazon closes above $210 by month-end, yet shows zero 24-hour volume and a stark asymmetry in implied yields (183% for Yes vs. 66,212% for No), suggesting the No side is severely underpriced or illiquid. With only 10 days to expiration and the price having climbed 7 cents over the past week, the 1-cent spread indicates thin liquidity despite $5.4M open interest, creating potential execution risk for contrarian bets. The elevated realized volatility of 194% and cliff risk index of 19 warrant caution, as a sharp market move could trigger significant repricing in this illiquid contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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