Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)

This San Jose Earthquakes -1.5 spread market shows extreme distress signals with a 9,172% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $145k open interest, suggesting the 36¢ price may be stale or illiquid rather than reflecting true probability. The sharp 48¢ to 36¢ price drop over seven days combined with 1,293% realized volatility and a 2.0 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant uncertainty ahead of the April 22 game, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias. With just 7 days to expiration and a 4¢ bid-ask spread, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this pricing given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Jose Earthquakes" if San Jose Earthquakes win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austin FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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