Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 7024% on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and likely mispricing, with only $148 in 24-hour volume supporting $14.9M in open interest across a thin 3¢ spread.
Analysis
The extraordinarily high implied yield of 7024% on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and likely mispricing, with only $148 in 24-hour volume supporting $14.9M in open interest across a thin 3¢ spread. At 14¢ with 32 days to expiry, McGrath's nomination probability appears deeply discounted, though the modest 7-day price stability (13¢ to 14¢) and neutral regime suggest the market hasn't yet priced in any major campaign developments. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates potential for sharp repricing as the May 2026 primary approaches, making this a high-volatility position despite the low absolute price.
Also on kalshi at 11¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xfe0fe39d95df3b654e9bf995024d2129ef5dafa50a4c492456ff9d50ae5d462d yes 100