Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?

This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.3k open interest and a massive 9,370% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 6¢ price may be artificially depressed or stale. The sharp 7-day decline from 12¢ to 5¢ combined with 3,382% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 19 indicates significant recent price action, though the wide 3¢ spread and lack of trading activity raise concerns about true market liquidity and price discovery. With only ~7 months until expiry and Tunisia showing no recent diplomatic movement toward Israel recognition, the extremely asymmetric risk-reward (9,370% vs 26%) likely reflects either a liquidity trap or genuine market skepticism about recognition occurring.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade