What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Anime of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Anime of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1749.9% and 4.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Anime of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Anime of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Anime of the Year?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1727% implied yield on Yes contracts trading at just 12¢, though the minuscule $61.25 daily volume and wide 8¢ spread suggest severe illiquidity that could distort pricing.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $191.07·OI $1,244.64·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEAOTY-26-GAC

7-day price122 snapshots · 3 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1727% implied yield on Yes contracts trading at just 12¢, though the minuscule $61.25 daily volume and wide 8¢ spread suggest severe illiquidity that could distort pricing. The 7-day rally from 2¢ to 5¢ followed by current pricing at 12¢ indicates recent information arrival (0.4/h), but with 402 days until resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the market remains highly speculative and vulnerable to sudden repricing. The 2.84 volatility ratio and 1706% realized volatility underscore the contract's extreme sensitivity to any news about Gachiakuta's competitive positioning or Crunchyroll Award voting dynamics.

Resolution rules

If Gachiakuta has won Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1749.9%

IY (No) 4.8%

Adj IY 350%

CRI 19

RV 1697%

VR 4.62

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1749.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	350%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1697%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.80	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:42:40 AM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEAOTY-26-GAC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →