What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1442.9% and 5.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $123.61 open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 6/16¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $123.61·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBAS-26-JAN

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $123.61 open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The asymmetric implied yields (1424% for Yes vs 5.8% for No) and wide 10¢ spread reflect high uncertainty around a specific song winning a prestigious award nearly 18 months away. The recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ over seven days suggests modest selling pressure, though the minimal trading activity makes directional signals weak.

Resolution rules

If "JANE DOE" by Kenshi Yonezu and Hikaru Utada has won Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1442.9%

IY (No) 5.9%

Adj IY 721%

CRI 16

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1442.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	721%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:31 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBAS-26-JAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →