What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2210.4% and 3.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $232, creating a wide 10¢ spread that makes meaningful trading difficult.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 4/14¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $231.96·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBAS-26-WAT

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $232, creating a wide 10¢ spread that makes meaningful trading difficult. The 2182% implied yield on the Yes side is a statistical artifact of the low 15¢ price rather than a genuine opportunity, and the 0% risk-adjusted yield reflects the market's inability to generate real alpha given its thin conditions. With 401 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this contract is essentially dormant and unsuitable for serious position-building until liquidity materially improves.

Resolution rules

If "Watch Me!" by YOASOBI has won Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2210.4%

IY (No) 3.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround -0.2%

LAS 2.50

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2210.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.50	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:43 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBAS-26-WAT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →