2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Film of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Film of the Year?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows an exceptionally high implied yield of 148.3% on the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Chainsaw Man's chances or substantial uncertainty about the 2026 award outcome—notably, the specific film hasn't been released yet as of the market creation.
Analysis
This market shows an exceptionally high implied yield of 148.3% on the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Chainsaw Man's chances or substantial uncertainty about the 2026 award outcome—notably, the specific film hasn't been released yet as of the market creation. The 8¢ spread and minimal $271.84 open interest indicate thin liquidity despite the 402-day timeframe, creating potential slippage for larger positions, while the modest 2-point cliff risk suggests relatively stable resolution mechanics.
Resolution rules
If Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc has won Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXANIMEBF-26-CHA yes 100