2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $612 open interest, and the 8¢ spread suggests difficulty finding counterparties at the 39¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $612 open interest, and the 8¢ spread suggests difficulty finding counterparties at the 39¢ price. The 130% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to just 26.3% on the No side, indicating either strong conviction among Yes holders or a pricing inefficiency given the neutral regime and low information arrival rate of 0.6 events per hour. With 624 days until expiry and a realized volatility of 224%, this market appears thinly traded and potentially mispriced, though the specific documentary film's Oscar trajectory remains unclear without additional context on its festival performance or industry buzz.
Resolution rules
If One in a Million has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMDOCU-27-ONE yes 100