If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Successful splash down? | 70.0% |
Super Heavy booster explodes? | 59.5% |
April 30 | 51.0% |
CurrentApril 21 | 50.5% |
April 14 | 50.5% |
April 7 | 50.0% |
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 11.5% |
March 31 | 9.0% |
February 28 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
December 31 | 0.0% |
January 31 | 0.0% |