This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentSuccessful splash down? | 68.0% |
Super Heavy booster explodes? | 63.5% |
March 31 | 53.5% |
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? |
18.5% |
February 28 | 18.0% |
January 31 | 1.8% |
December 31 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
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Kalshi | 95.0% | $117 | Trade |