If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Consider selling on Kalshi at higher price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Super Heavy booster explodes? | 63.5% |
Successful splash down? | 63.0% |
March 31 | 53.5% |
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 19.0% |
February 28 | 18.0% |
CurrentJanuary 31 | 1.8% |
December 31 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
Found 3 similar markets on other platforms.
| 1.0% |
| $11,148 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 71.0% | $23,890 | Trade |