This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Successful splash down? | 68.0% |
CurrentSuper Heavy booster explodes? | 63.5% |
March 31 | 53.5% |
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? |
February 28 | 18.0% |
January 31 | 1.8% |
December 31 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
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