What is the current probability for "Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 127.9% and 127.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. Democrats are priced at a slight majority 55¢ with nearly $1M in open interest, but the 147.4% implied yield on the No side suggests meaningful skepticism about holding the chamber given historical midterm headwinds.

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51¢

Bid/Ask 50/51¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $12,499.63·OI $1,012,847.95·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

CONTROLS-2026-D

7-day price20 snapshots · 114 regime

54¢50¢ current

Apr 848¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

Democrats are priced at a slight majority 55¢ with nearly $1M in open interest, but the 147.4% implied yield on the No side suggests meaningful skepticism about holding the chamber given historical midterm headwinds. The market has drifted up 4¢ over the past week in a neutral regime, though $16.8K in daily volume is relatively modest for a high-stakes political contract with 291 days to expiry, indicating this remains a niche position despite the substantial open interest.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 53¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.91IY 166.3%Close-time delta 2175h

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 127.9%

IY (No) 127.9%

Adj IY 63%

CRI 1

LAS 0.02

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	127.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	127.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	63%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:19:07 AM

Observability lowEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade CONTROLS-2026-D yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →