Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market on Erika Kirk shows extremely thin liquidity with only $798 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market on Erika Kirk shows extremely thin liquidity with only $798 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable. The 391% implied yield on a Yes resolution is exceptionally high, suggesting either substantial underpricing or significant tail risk that the market isn't fully pricing in. With 625 days to expiry and a modest 2¢ spread, the market has time for price discovery, though the near-zero trading activity and elevated cliff risk index of 7 indicate this contract lacks conviction and could experience sharp repricing if Kirk makes any campaign-related announcements.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Erika Kirk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR yes 100