Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Tucker Carlson 2028 nomination market shows a stark asymmetry between Yes (130.1% annualized yield) and No (26.3% yield), suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful skepticism despite the 34¢ price point.
Analysis
This Tucker Carlson 2028 nomination market shows a stark asymmetry between Yes (130.1% annualized yield) and No (26.3% yield), suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful skepticism despite the 34¢ price point. With only $306 in daily volume against $6.8k open interest and a 625-day runway to resolution, liquidity is thin relative to the bet size, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 31¢) and low cliff risk (2/10) indicate the market has stabilized, though the wide yield spread hints at genuine uncertainty rather than consensus pricing.
Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +26¢)
Resolution rules
If Tucker Carlson announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-TUC yes 100