Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Josh Hawley nomination market shows weak conviction with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day timeframe and modest $4,651.65 open interest, suggesting limited trader engagement.
Analysis
This Josh Hawley nomination market shows weak conviction with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day timeframe and modest $4,651.65 open interest, suggesting limited trader engagement. The 45¢ price has declined 4 cents over seven days, and the 84.1% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the risk-adjusted yield of 42%, indicating potential mispricing or low liquidity distortion. With a 6¢ spread and neutral regime, this appears to be a low-activity contract where the price may not reflect true market consensus on Hawley's nomination prospects.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW yes 100