Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Kalshi market on Brian Kemp's 2028 Republican primary intentions shows extremely thin liquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume and $257 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This Kalshi market on Brian Kemp's 2028 Republican primary intentions shows extremely thin liquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume and $257 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 124.2% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 27.5% No yield, suggesting either underpricing of Kemp's candidacy likelihood or illiquidity-driven distortion, with the 4¢ spread reflecting the shallow order book. With 625 days until expiry and minimal recent price movement (31¢ to 32¢ over 7 days), this market lacks the trading activity needed to establish confidence in fair value.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Brian Kemp announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM yes 100