Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Donald J. Trump Jr. is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
22¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If Donald J. Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Rank
#6 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 72¢
Range
2¢-72¢
Family volume
$852
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Jun 6, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$34
Family rank
#6 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$852
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald J. Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 3¢, +19¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$852
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 72¢
Current share
4%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Rand Paul
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RPAU
Brian Kemp
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM
Steve Bannon
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Donald J. Trump Jr.
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Matt Gaetz
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MGAE
Greg Abbott
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-GABB
Byron Donalds
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ
Erika Kirk
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Pete Hegseth
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Elise Stefanik
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE
Elon Musk
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-EMUS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.