Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

This Trump Jr. nomination contract shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite an 11.9k open interest, suggesting the $11,916 may be concentrated among few positions. The 23-cent price implies a modest 23% probability, yet the Yes yield of 195.6% appears inflated relative to the risk-adjusted yield of 98%, indicating potential mispricing or low confidence in the probability estimate. With 625 days to expiration and only a 1-cent spread, the market lacks active price discovery, making the current quote potentially unreliable for serious trading.

Resolution rules

If Donald J. Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

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