Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Youngkin nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome.
Analysis
This Youngkin nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome. The 39¢ price implies a relatively low probability, but the 95.3% annualized yield on the Yes side indicates significant mispricing or risk premium—traders demanding substantial compensation for capital tied up until year-end 2027. With only $3,846 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than a liquid prediction market.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Glenn Youngkin announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU yes 100