What is the current probability for "Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2028. 620 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 84.7% and 40.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Josh Hawley nomination market shows weak conviction with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day timeframe and modest $4,651.65 open interest, suggesting limited trader engagement.

███████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

47¢

Bid/Ask 41/47¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $4,656.92·Closes Jan 1, 2028·620d remaining

KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW

7-day price116 snapshots · 2 regime

45¢40¢ current

Apr 1439¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This Josh Hawley nomination market shows weak conviction with zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day timeframe and modest $4,651.65 open interest, suggesting limited trader engagement. The 45¢ price has declined 4 cents over seven days, and the 84.1% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the risk-adjusted yield of 42%, indicating potential mispricing or low liquidity distortion. With a 6¢ spread and neutral regime, this appears to be a low-activity contract where the price may not reflect true market consensus on Hawley's nomination prospects.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88Close-time delta 7449h

Resolution rules

If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 84.7%

IY (No) 40.9%

Adj IY 85%

CRI 1

RV 322%

VR 3.48

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	84.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	40.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	322%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.48	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:14:48 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →