Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Marco Rubio 2028 nomination market shows a significant asymmetry in yield opportunities, with the "No" side offering 84.1% implied yield versus 40.6% for "Yes," suggesting the market may be pricing in structural uncertainty rather than fundamental doubt about his candidacy.
Analysis
This Marco Rubio 2028 nomination market shows a significant asymmetry in yield opportunities, with the "No" side offering 84.1% implied yield versus 40.6% for "Yes," suggesting the market may be pricing in structural uncertainty rather than fundamental doubt about his candidacy. The recent 4-cent price decline over seven days (63¢ to 59¢) combined with thin 24-hour volume of just $503 indicates low conviction and liquidity constraints, making the current 62% probability potentially vulnerable to larger moves. With 625 days to expiration and minimal cliff risk, the market has ample time for information to resolve, but the high yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine ambiguity or simply illiquid pricing.
Also on polymarket at 20¢(Δ +38¢)
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB yes 100