Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Leader sits at 82% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
J.D. Vance
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Glenn Youngkin
Spread
48pp
contested
24h volume
$71
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
481 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: J.D. Vance
KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KX2028RRUN-28-MTAY
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump
KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Tucker Carlson
KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Larry Hogan
KX2028RRUN-28-LHOG
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Katie Britt
KX2028RRUN-28-KBRI
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: John Thune
KX2028RRUN-28-JTHU
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: John McEntee
KX2028RRUN-28-JMCE
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Jared Kushner
KX2028RRUN-28-JKUS
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Josh Hawley
KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Jeff Bezos
KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Glenn Youngkin
KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Gregory Bovino
KX2028RRUN-28-GBOV
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Greg Abbott
KX2028RRUN-28-GABB
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Elise Stefanik
KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Elon Musk
KX2028RRUN-28-EMUS
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Erika Kirk
KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Brian Kemp
KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Byron Donalds
KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that J.D. Vance will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 77 cents. As Vice President under Donald Trump's second term, Vance holds significant positioning for a potential run, though uncertainty remains about whether he will actually declare candidacy. The current market level suggests traders view a nomination bid as more likely than not, but not overwhelmingly certain. Key factors that could shift this probability include formal statements from Vance about his intentions, major policy disagreements within the administration, or unforeseen political developments. The resolution date of this market will be determined by the Republican National Convention in 2028, where the party's nominee becomes official. Between now and then, Vance's visibility, policy alignment with party activists, and any public positioning regarding 2028 will be primary drivers of how this probability evolves.
- ›Vance's current position as Vice President provides institutional platform and fundraising advantages, but also creates constraints on independent political positioning
- ›No formal declaration or public commitment from Vance regarding a 2028 run has been made; current probability rests on market inference rather than announced intentions
- ›Alternative Republican candidates collectively priced under 2 cents (Tucker Carlson, Trump Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Gregory Bovino) suggest market consolidation around Vance as frontrunner, not consensus inevitability
- ›Historical precedent shows sitting Vice Presidents often face primary challenges or decide against running based on political conditions 18-24 months before elections
- ›Resolution depends on Republican National Convention outcome in 2028; any third-party or independent candidacy by Vance would resolve this contract negatively despite potential electoral significance
What moved the line
- Sep 4Jeff Bezos↑9pp5→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Jeff Bezos↓7pp12→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3J.D. Vance↑3pp81→84¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4J.D. Vance↓3pp84→81¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Erika Kirk↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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