Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that J.D. Vance will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 77 cents. As Vice President under Donald Trump's second term, Vance holds significant positioning for a potential run, though uncertainty remains about whether he will actually declare candidacy. The current market level suggests traders view a nomination bid as more likely than not, but not overwhelmingly certain. Key factors that could shift this probability include formal statements from Vance about his intentions, major policy disagreements within the administration, or unforeseen political developments. The resolution date of this market will be determined by the Republican National Convention in 2028, where the party's nominee becomes official. Between now and then, Vance's visibility, policy alignment with party activists, and any public positioning regarding 2028 will be primary drivers of how this probability evolves.

• ›Vance's current position as Vice President provides institutional platform and fundraising advantages, but also creates constraints on independent political positioning
• ›No formal declaration or public commitment from Vance regarding a 2028 run has been made; current probability rests on market inference rather than announced intentions
• ›Alternative Republican candidates collectively priced under 2 cents (Tucker Carlson, Trump Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Gregory Bovino) suggest market consolidation around Vance as frontrunner, not consensus inevitability
• ›Historical precedent shows sitting Vice Presidents often face primary challenges or decide against running based on political conditions 18-24 months before elections
• ›Resolution depends on Republican National Convention outcome in 2028; any third-party or independent candidacy by Vance would resolve this contract negatively despite potential electoral significance

What moved the line

• Jul 23Gregory Bovino↑7pp19→26¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22Gregory Bovino↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds