Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will declare candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. At 51 cents, Tucker Carlson currently has the highest implied probability among tracked candidates, followed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. at 29 cents each. The market's assessment depends on several observable factors: each candidate's public statements about 2028 ambitions, their current political positioning and media influence, organizational infrastructure development, and historical precedent for similar figures. The probability could shift significantly based on major political realignments, changes in candidate viability following 2026 midterm outcomes, or explicit public statements confirming or denying candidacy intentions. Resolution will occur when the 2028 Republican National Convention process formally begins and candidates officially declare their intentions, providing definitive confirmation of participation.

• ›Tucker Carlson's media platform and political profile give him higher name recognition than other tracked candidates, directly affecting his market pricing relative to less-established figures
• ›Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr. each command 29-cent valuations despite different political constituencies, suggesting the market is uncertain about which Trump-aligned candidate might emerge
• ›24-hour trading volume concentration ($54 on Carlson vs. $7-19 on other candidates) indicates asymmetric market interest, potentially reflecting either stronger conviction or limited price discovery on lower-volume contracts
• ›No candidate has unambiguously announced 2028 intentions as of May 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about who will actually participate in the nomination process
• ›The market is pricing specific individuals rather than likelihood of contested primary, suggesting differentiated assessments of each candidate's viability and intent

What moved the line

• Jun 3Jeff Bezos↑6pp10→16¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 7Donald J. Trump↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 4Tucker Carlson↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds