Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Pete Hegseth nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 306.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 20¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing once trading resumes.
Analysis
This Pete Hegseth nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 306.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 20¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing once trading resumes. The $3,128 open interest and 3¢ spread are modest for a binary with 625 days to expiry, indicating limited market depth and potential execution challenges for larger positions. The 153% risk-adjusted yield and cliff risk index of 5 warrant caution—this appears to be a low-conviction, thinly-traded market where price discovery remains incomplete.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Pete Hegseth announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG yes 100