Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Sarah Huckabee Sanders nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 233.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book dynamics.
Analysis
This Sarah Huckabee Sanders nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 233.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book dynamics. The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and with only $818 in open interest across 625 days to expiration, this contract lacks sufficient depth for reliable probability assessment. The modest 7-day decline from 21¢ to 20¢ combined with a neutral regime score suggests minimal recent conviction, though the 4/10 cliff risk index warrants caution near resolution.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Sarah Huckabee Sanders announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-SHS yes 100