Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi leave office next in this set?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi leave office next in this set?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market prices el-Sisi's departure as highly unlikely at just 3¢, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 370.9% implied yield over the 3,182-day horizon, suggesting either significant underpricing or extreme tail-risk compensation.
Analysis
This market prices el-Sisi's departure as highly unlikely at just 3¢, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 370.9% implied yield over the 3,182-day horizon, suggesting either significant underpricing or extreme tail-risk compensation. The 6¢ spread and minimal $10.56 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted yield potentially unrealistic for actual execution. With a Cliff Risk Index of 32 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative long-tail bet where the extreme yield reflects both genuine political uncertainty in Egypt and the market's thin depth rather than consensus expectation.
Resolution rules
If the President of Egypt is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-AFES yes 100