What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 70¢ (70% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 58.9% and 144.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $9 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.

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70¢

Bid/Ask 61/69¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $71.73·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBAS-26-IRI

7-day price90 snapshots · 2 regime

66¢61¢ current

Apr 1160¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $9 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The No side offers an unusually attractive 148.3% implied yield compared to Yes's 55.7%, suggesting the market may be mispriced given the specific resolution criteria tied to a single song by a major artist. The 7-cent spread and recent 4-cent price decline over 7 days indicate minimal trading activity, so any position would face significant slippage risk despite the 402-day timeframe before expiry.

Resolution rules

If "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu has won Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 58.9%

IY (No) 144.1%

Adj IY 144%

CRI 2

RV 203%

VR 2.63

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	58.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	144.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	144%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	203%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.63	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:37 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBAS-26-IRI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →