What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2210.4% and 3.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Song?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/5¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $201·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBAS-26-TIE

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 2181.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of ultra-low prices on illiquid contracts, while the wide 5¢ spread and moderate 24 cliff risk index (suggesting potential resolution complications) further reduce confidence in price discovery. With 402 days until expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a dormant niche market where the quoted probability may not reflect genuine market sentiment.

Resolution rules

If Tie has won Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2210.4%

IY (No) 3.8%

Adj IY 1105%

CRI 24

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2210.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1105%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:34 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBAS-26-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →