What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Character Design?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Character Design?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1442.9% and 5.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Character Design?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Character Design?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Character Design?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $70 open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 6/16¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $85·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBCD-26-ONE

7-day price76 snapshots · 2 regime

8¢6¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $70 open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The asymmetric implied yields (1207.8% for Yes vs 6.8% for No) and wide 10¢ spread reflect the thin order book, though the modest 7-day price movement from 6¢ to 7¢ suggests recent stability. With 402 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 13, this appears to be a speculative position on One Piece's character design recognition rather than an actively-traded prediction.

Resolution rules

If ONE PIECE has won Best Character Design at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1442.9%

IY (No) 5.9%

Adj IY 1443%

CRI 16

RV 2478%

VR 7.05

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1442.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1443%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2478%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.05	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:14 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBCD-26-ONE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →