What is the current probability for "Leverkusen at FC Köln: Totals"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Leverkusen at FC Köln: Totals"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10499.4% and 440.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Leverkusen at FC Köln: Totals"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Leverkusen at FC Köln: Totals

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Leverkusen at FC Köln: Totals. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026.

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22¢mid

Bid/Ask 17/26¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 9, 2026·17d remaining

KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26APR25KOELEV-4

7-day price12 snapshots · 1 regime

19¢17¢ current

Apr 212¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If Leverkusen and FC Köln collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the FC Köln vs Leverkusen professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10499.4%

IY (No) 440.5%

Adj IY 10499%

CRI 5

RV 2715%

VR 2.35

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10499.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	440.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10499%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2715%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 2:15:27 PM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 2:08:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26APR25KOELEV-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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