Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $583.9 open interest, suggesting the $0 spread may not reflect true tradability. The Yes position offers a striking 333.6% implied yield against a 24% probability, creating a significant asymmetry that warrants skepticism—such yields typically indicate either mispricing or genuine tail-risk uncertainty about Porter's viability as a third-place finisher in California's crowded primary field. The sharp 7-day rally from 2¢ to 21¢ (950% move) combined with moderate cliff risk (4/10) and 412 days to expiry suggests recent information flow or speculative positioning rather than fundamental consensus.

Resolution rules

If Katie Porter finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

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